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If carbon neutrality is to be achieved in the next 30 years, significant changes are required. To this end, the UK government has already implemented changes to the Building Regulations and is now working on the Future Homes Standard, which will come into effect in 2025. What are the key aims here? How do they affect the way we will heat and cool our homes in the near future? And will this be enough to deliver on climate ambitions? Let’s discuss.

Future Homes Standard

In 2022 the UK government already implemented a series of amendments to the Building Regulations. These included lowering the maximum CO2 emissions by buildings as well as raising the bar for fabric, overheating, and ventilation regulations. The changes introduced in 2022 help to lay the groundwork for the introduction of the Future Homes Standard (FHS). This will require new build homes to be future-proofed with low carbon heating and high levels of energy efficiency.  

The Future Homes Standard will mean that: 

• New homes will produce 75 to 80% less carbon emissions relative to homes built in accordance to Part L 2013;
• Heating systems in general will operate at lower temperatures, allowing heat pumps to operate efficiently;
• New buildings will no longer use fossil fuel heating and will use energy-efficient materials and insulation to minimise heat losses; 
• Properties will be net-zero-ready and will not require any energy efficiency retrofit to become zero carbon as the electricity grid gradually decarbonises. 

Challenges moving forward

These aims are ambitious and will require a shift in the way we design, build and live within our (new) homes. Such a major adjustment is certainly not without its challenges. “It’s a huge shift from an industry that was almost completely reliant on natural gas as a heat source to one that favours electric fuelled heat generation”, says Eamon McBrearty, UK Sales Director at Myson. “Heat pumps seem to be the best solution in most circumstances but that in itself already presents another challenge as it’s not clear yet if the capacity in the supply chain is there to manufacture the number of heat pumps required.”

In 2022 a total of 55,000 heat pumps were sold in the UK. The UK government has stated an aim that they would like to see a roll-out of 600,000 heat pumps per year by 2028. In a market where currently 23 million homes have a gas boiler, that’s easier said than done. “Introducing heat pumps on such a large scale requires a shift in the way we design our heating and cooling systems to ensure their optimal performance. On top of that, there is the expertise and (re)training required to ensure we get enough installers and engineers who understand these products and how they are installed. This skills gap is probably the biggest challenge we face at the moment”, adds Eamon. 

Shared responsibility

In the UK, there are currently around 1,500 MCS certified installers, but the Heat Pump Association estimates 30,000 will be needed in the long term. That means that over the next 4 to 5 years the industry will have to train and retrain 5,000 to 6,000 engineers per annum to meet the anticipated demand. Eamon explains: “We all have a responsibility to facilitate this. The government of course needs to initiate it but the broader industry shares the responsibility for training engineers on these modern technologies. The mechanisms to train specifiers, engineers and other HVAC professionals are established through the discipline of CPD’s mandated by their professional bodies. Training installers may be more challenging and will require real focus, as developing these skills is critical to achieving the aims of reducing the carbon footprint associated with heating homes in the UK. It is also important to recognise not only the requirement for individual designs but also design compliance and commissioning of systems by installers.”
Nabeel Javaid, Cluster Product Manager at Purmo Group, adds: “There is real emphasis in the Future Homes Standards report on equipment usage guides which need to be created and publicised by the manufacturer and supported by industry bodies. I believe there is another layer here which are local and national HVAC installer companies who offer insulation and heating improvements to homes. There would need to be consideration for system-sell training to all of these local businesses.”

Aside from training, there lies a challenge in changing the general mindset. “Until now gas has been considered to be a cleaner fuel than electricity. This is changing and the grid has become progressively cleaner as we move away from coal and gas-fired generation towards cleaner, renewable technologies supplying the electric grid. However, gas is what the general public know. It is convenient to use and the cost is currently lower than the sustainable alternative. The Future Homes Standard will help to bridge that gap”, says Eamon.

Fabric first approach

In an attempt to close the financial gap, the UK government is adopting a fabric first approach. Higher performance levels of the building fabric will reduce the amount of energy required to heat a home. This paves the way for heating systems that will be required to run at lower temperatures, enabling heat pumps to operate as efficiently as possible. The result will be a combination of higher indoor climate comfort levels and optimal energy efficiency.

“To optimise the benefits of this approach, we’ll also need to consider the performance gap”, adds Eamon. “There’s often a variation between the theoretical performance of a building at the design stage and how it’s applied on site. Future Homes Standard will ensure that developers can demonstrate close compliance to the design brief. Not only in relation to the HVAC system, but also the complete fabric.” 

Complete building systems

The importance attached to the building fabric highlights the need for a holistic approach. This applies both to the entire building, including the systems within it, and to the heating and cooling system itself. 

“Only if the system is designed properly and the heat pump is applied correctly, will you be able to get a COP of about 4, so about 4 times the output. On top of the heat pump as a heat source, distribution and emitters must be considered. Low temperature radiators and user-friendly controls are key. As a leading supplier of indoor climate comfort solutions we are convinced that good design and the application of proven products in a complete system can help to close the performance gap.”

More efficient building fabrics will allow for both direct electric heating by means of electric radiators and central electric heating with either electric boilers or heat pumps. Eamon comments: “If we are to turn the UK market of over 20 million boilers to one that has a significant share of heat pumps within only a few years, then we also need to get better at designing heat pumps. A lot of the UK housing stock is in apartments or semi-detached houses, which raises challenges with regard to the installation of the external unit of a heat pump system. So there are product development challenges to overcome.”

Retrofit strategy

It’s clear by now that there is no point of return and there are many challenges still to overcome. However, there is one more elephant in the room that hasn’t been addressed so far. Eamon explains: “The Future Homes Standard is absolutely necessary but it only addresses new build properties in the UK. On average, we build about 200,000 houses every year. For a housing stock of approximately 28 million homes, that means it impacts less than 1% of the housing stock per annum. So if we only rely on new build to clean up our housing stock it will take decades. We need a retrofit strategy as well. We need to consider how we can apply the same principles into the retrofit market.”

“My suggestion would be that the government should refocus some of the incentive schemes that are currently running to improve the building’s insulation and promote cleaner electric alternatives towards the gas boiler replacement market”, says Nabeel. “Government grant schemes now quite often focus on low-income households or those currently on a government benefits scheme but this concerns a much larger target audience.”

 “Renovations will often happen over the course of several months, or even years, and priorities are set under the influence of other lifestyle choices or commitments. This makes it more difficult enjoy the benefits of a complete system approach where the building fabric, ventilation, heating system, etc. are all brought up to par simultaneously and reinforce each other.” 

Julian Clegg, Cluster Product Manager at Myson, concludes: “In new build projects you don’t have a choice anymore, but in retrofit people do. Some people still don’t know the difference between a gas boiler and a heat pump, so product focus needs to change in the renovation market as well. Moreover, if existing buildings need to comply to FHS standards it will be a costly affair. Not all individuals are able to fund that.”